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When will Omniture get acquired?

 

Omniture just reported earnings for Q3 2008. Revenue was up 108%. They are still turning in losses quarter after quarter, but that will turn around with time. They are still a new company. What really matters is where they sit in the market. I think they’ll be acquired in the next 12 months, or their stock is going to go through the roof.

Their stock right now is trading around $11/share. They traded as high as $38.50 over the last 52 weeks. Their stock has suffered due to losses and a flight to quality in the market (and a healthy dose of irrational exuberance that got them to $38/share in the first place), but their market dominance is getting stronger by the day.

Omniture is a web analytics company. They get a small amount of revenue every time someone visits a page on one of their customer sites. Yes, its a tiny fraction of a cent for every page view but, last quarter, they served 939 billion transactions. People sold their stock, not sure if they could weather a tightening of the purse strings by the tech companies but, the truth is, no company can afford to get rid of omniture. Without it, you have no way to know how your customers use your site, where they come from, why they purchase or don’t purchase, etc. Omniture is the window into your web server’s soul.

Last quarter alone, they signed on 250 new customers. Doesn’t sound like much right, just 250 customers? Yes, yes it is, those customers were (among others): Hershey, Coach, Equifax, IKEA, and Saab. These guys are huge and they’re going to be paying Omniture for a very long time.

Google has their Google Analytics software. Its free, it works fine for small customers. Their service goes up and down without warning, offers no sophisticated reporting tools and has no significant integration points into other pieces of software. Omniture is the enterprise solution and they bring in a lot of money because of it.

Omniture is a fairly new company, but it seems they are ripe for a takeover. With a nearly 75% haircut in their stock price, they are a screaming bargain right now and when Google, Microsoft and the other big tech players are sitting on hoardes of cash, Omniture seems like a great takeover candidate in the next 12 months or so.

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